Local voters are turning their backs on the United Conservative Party, according to recent polls.

338 Canada, which tracks multiple polls, no longer expects a UCP win in the Fort Saskatchewan - Vegreville riding, but says the next election is now looking like a toss up between the NDP and UCP. Support for the UCP, which was at 57.9 per cent in the last election, is now at 47 per cent, with a plus or minus seven per cent margin of error

NDP support, which was at 37.4 per cent in 2023, in now at 44 per cent.

The separatist Alberta Republican Party stands at five per cent. The Republican Party, formerly known as the Buffalo Party, ran only one candidate in the 2023 Alberta election, and none in Fort Saskatchewan -Vegreville.

The Republican Party is led by Cameron Davies, a dual Canadian-American Citizen. The party is also implicated in the large privacy breach in which the private information of millions of Albertans was posted on a public website by the Centurion Project in April of this year.

The Progressive Tory Party of Alberta, formerly known as the Alberta Party, is supported by only one per cent of local voters, according to the most recent polls.

The Alberta Party received 12.7 per cent of the local vote in the 2019 Alberta election, but did not run a candidate in Fort Saskatchewan - Vegreville in 2023.

The Fort Saskatchewan -Vegreville riding, currently held by UCP MLA Jackie Armstron-Homeniuk, continued to poll strongly in support of the UCP up until September, 2025, where support stood at 55 per cent for  the UCP and only 39 per cent for the NDP.

Support has slipped steadily since then, dropping to 50 per cent for the UCP this summer, then dropping again just this past month.

Republican support also dropped during this period. It stood at nine per cent last fall.